Articles by Estefano Gomez
The US military seized an oil tanker associated with Iran, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April down to 17%
YES, from 26% a day ago.
Market reaction
Traders droя┐╜...
An Iranian diplomatic source says a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations is reportedly imminent. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 10.4%
YES, down from 14% juя┐╜...
US jobless claims and manufacturing data came out on April 23, 2026, while the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global oil flows. The probability of a Fed rate cut after the June 2026 meetinя┐╜...
Iranian sources claim US-Iran negotiations could see a breakthrough тАЬtonight or tomorrow.тАЭ The odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 10.4%
YES, down from 14% yester...
The U.S. has depleted critical missile stockpiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, potentially limiting future military capacity. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026,я┐╜...
The EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and military sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market now sits at 3.8%
YES, down from 5% a week ago.
The paя┐╜...
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal as a condition for any agreement in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon peace talks. The market on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meя┐╜...
IranтАЩs closure of the Strait of Hormuz over ceasefire breaches has pushed odds for a Trump-Iran meeting by April 30 down to 3.2%
, falling from 8% just a day ago.
Market reaction
The diplomatic m...
The US Senate voted 51-46 against a resolution to limit President TrumpтАЩs war powers in Iran, leaving the market on no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 8%
YES, up from 2% a week...
SoFi now offers XRP trading through FDIC-insured accounts, but the Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by end of April 2026 sits at 0.5%
YES, unchanged over the past week.
Market reaction
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