Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now я┐╜...
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES
, up from 38% a week ago.
The confirmed release movedя┐╜...
President TrumpтАЩs falling out with ItalyтАЩs Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 has ticked up to 1.2%
YES, u...
The PentagonтАЩs leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 market sits at 6%
YES.
Market reactio...
A tentative Middle East ceasefire is shaping crude oil market sentiment, with the probability of crude hitting $90 by the end of June declining as traders price in potential de-escalation in the regiя┐╜...
Charles Schwab announced the rollout of Schwab Crypto, a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Bitcoin price on April 16 market shows a 99.9%
probability of Bitcoin staying above $68,0я┐╜...
The Lebanese army has accused Israel of violating a ceasefire with acts of aggression. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7%
YES, while the June 30 market sits at 96я┐╜...
President Donald Trump claimed the Iran war is тАЬgoing along swimminglyтАЭ and hinted at a potential end soon. The market for a US war declaration by April 30 sits at 1%
YES, unchanged from a day a...
Drift Protocol and Tether have announced a $150M collaboration to fund a user recovery pool and relaunch Drift Protocol after its April 1 exploit. The Polymarket contract on Solana exceeding $30 by Aя┐╜...
Oil prices slipped after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, pushing the crude oil $90-by-end-of-June market lower as the geopolitical risk premium fades.
Market reacя┐╜...
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