Articles by Estefano Gomez
Ukraine secured fresh aid pledges for drones, air defense, and logistics at the Ramstein summit. The ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market is at 1.8%
YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
Nя┐╜...
IsraelтАЩs military operations in southern Lebanon are intensifying the 2026 Lebanon war, with the Polymarket contract on military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 priced at 100%
YES.
Market rea...
Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro have killed 12 people, pushing the probability of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, down to 1.8%
YES from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
я┐╜...
Saudi ArabiaтАЩs NEOM has launched a new trade route linking Europe to the Gulf that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices YES at a 15% expected decr...
Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9%
YES.
Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading Bitcoiя┐╜...
The FedтАЩs April 2026 Beige Book describes slight to modest growth, with energy costs surging due to the Iran War. The likelihood of the Fed following a CutPausePause pattern by April is 0%
.
Marke...
Short-term Bitcoin holders transferred over 60,000 BTC to exchanges, the largest such move since FebruaryтАЩs sell-off, and the Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market sits at 3%
YES.
Large BTC inf...
PakistanтАЩs Foreign Ministry reaffirmed LebanonтАЩs inclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire, despite ongoing military operations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 64.8%
YES.
...
Sen. FettermanтАЩs comments on intensifying US military action against Iran are moving prediction markets. The Iran leadership change contract (by end of 2026) sits at 21.5%
YES, a 15% increase in l...
IranтАЩs military rhetoric has escalated with press statements hinting at readiness to sink US warships. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2.3%
YES, while the European Central...
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