Articles by Estefano Gomez
An Israeli soldierтАЩs destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
The ceasefi...
IranтАЩs top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for тАЬno qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026тАЭ is at 2.8%
YES.
## Market reac...
Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 is at 8.5%
YES.
The blockade, enfя┐╜...
Trump told Bloomberg he wonтАЩt lift the siege on Iran without an agreement. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 52.5%
YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago....
Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, and the ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped to 34.5%
YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market fell 21.5 pointsя┐╜...
Over $400 million has been liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours, hitting 143,875 users. The тАЬWhat Price Will Bitcoin Hit in AprilтАЭ market suggests a dip to $60,000 is increasingl...
IranтАЩs decision to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it has traders reconsidering the likelihood of a US blockade lift. Odds for Trump announcing the blockadeтАЩs...
IranтАЩs military accused the US of attacking an Iranian commercial ship, escalating tensions. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 8.5%
YES, up from 4% yesterday.
Market react...
IranтАЩs Foreign Ministry has labeled an attack on a commercial ship as aggression. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 1.5%
YES, up from 2% yesterday.
Market reaction
...
IranтАЩs foreign ministry stated that removing nuclear reserves was never a negotiation option. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 1.5%
, up from 2% yesterday.
The statement mo...
.png)