Articles by Estefano Gomez
Lebanon denies any planned contact with Israel, contradicting President TrumpтАЩs statement. The odds of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sit at 100%
YES, suggesting traders read the...
Iran has increased its destructive drone production by ten times following the 12-day war with the Israel-U.S. coalition. The likelihood of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is at 5.5%
YES, dowя┐╜...
CENTCOMтАЩs legal definitions have left a loophole in the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, allowing non-oil cargo ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to ...
President Trump publicly rebuked ItalyтАЩs Giorgia Meloni for refusing to support US military actions in Iran and Lebanon, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1....
Anthropic, Google, and GitHubтАЩs AI coding agents were compromised through prompt injection attacks. The тАЬtop AI model by June 2026тАЭ market for Google holds at 16.5%
YES, down from 18% yesterda...
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for ChinaтАЩs 2026 GDP growth to 4.9%, while TSMC warned that higher gas prices from Middle East tensions could hit profits. The ECB interest rate market for a 50+ bp...
Iran faces major reconstruction costs after the Twelve-Day War, pushing leaders toward negotiations on sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April sits at 36.5%
я┐╜...
TrumpтАЩs ultimatum to the Fed chair injects uncertainty as Bitcoin hovers at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 is at 100%
YES.
The market for Bitcoin staying above $58,000 is priced at 10...
RussiaтАЩs latest air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17 people, pushing ceasefire odds lower. The ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now sits at 5%
YES, down from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The...
Field Marshal Asim MunirтАЩs visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5%
YES.
The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5%
YES, w...
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