Articles by Estefano Gomez
Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which started at midnight, has pushed the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April я┐╜...
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has intensified, and Polymarket contracts tracking IranтАЩs political future are moving in response. The тАЬIran Leadership StatusтАЭ market predicts a le...
Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Thя┐╜...
The US is delaying weapons deliveries to some European countries to prioritize its military needs in the Iran theater. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May is at 34%
YES.
я┐╜...
OpenAI has agreed to a $20 billion deal for Cerebras chips that includes an equity stake in the company, pushing USD.AI FDV predictions to 15%
YES, a 15% increase from previous expectations.
Markeя┐╜...
Macron and Starmer have rallied allies to consider a multinational mission for securing the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of the UK sending warships by April 30, 2026, sit at 5.5%
YES, down from 12% aя┐╜...
Ukrainian Prime MinisterтАЩs Washington visit spurred reconstruction talks, pushing the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market to 5.9%
YES, up from 5% a week ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire ...
President Pezeshkian has commended PakistanтАЩs mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0%
YES, down from 33% a week ago.
Pezes...
Roberto S├бnchez has accused Rafael L├│pez Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. L├│pez AliagaтАЩs chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5%
YES, ...
Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon warned that Israel would react if threatened, adding friction to already strained Israel-Iran relations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits aя┐╜...
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