Articles by Estefano Gomez
The EUтАЩs AI Office cannot access AnthropicтАЩs Mythos model for cybersecurity review, affecting the тАЬThird best AI model by April 2026тАЭ market, where odds are expected to drop 15%.
Market react...
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over тАЬnuclear dustтАЭ from its bombed facilities. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are now at 39.2%
YES, up from 35% yesterday.
The Iran...
Bloomberg reports a Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for mid-May. The market for Trump visiting China by May 31 is now at 85.5%
YES, up from 76% a week ago.
The May 31 sub-market moved from 82% to 85.я┐╜...
China is ramping up diplomatic efforts with Iran while coordinating a summit with Trump. The market for TrumpтАЩs visit to China by May 31 is at 85.5%
YES, up from 76% a week ago.
ChinaтАЩs active ...
ChinaтАЩs foreign minister announced a priority to push the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. The Polymarket contract for no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1%
YE...
Henry Paulson warned that the U.S. needs a contingency plan if demand for Treasuries collapses, and the odds of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 sit at 23%
YES on Polymarket.
PaulsonтАЩs remarks...
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses global economic risks, particularly through accelerated inflation. On Polymarket, the market for a 50+ bps ECB ratя┐╜...
OpenAI plans to go public, but CEO Sam AltmanтАЩs financial interests remain opaque. On the IPOs before 2027 market, odds for an OpenAI IPO before 2027 sit at 15%
YES.
## Market reaction
The IPO a...
IsraelтАЩs elite naval unit Shayetet 13 carried out a seaborne invasion of Naqoura, Lebanon on April 14, 2026, the first such operation since 2000. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market no...
Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-tiя┐╜...
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