Articles by Estefano Gomez
US Marines have taken custody of an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to breach the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a social media post by President Donald Trump. тАЬStrait of Hormuz...
Crypto thefts in 2025 reached $3.4 billion, driven by state actors and mega-hacks. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES, while Bitcoin above $62,000 on Aprilя┐╜...
U.S. military planes are landing in the region as Iran warns of ongoing conflict. The probability of U.S. ground forces entering Iran by year-end is expected to increase by 15%, while the likelihood я┐╜...
Israel is preparing for potential escalation with Iran as US military posture shifts. The likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 is at 20%
YES, up from 6% just a day ago.
Market reя┐╜...
President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address IranтАЩs closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13%
YES, down from 22% yesterd...
A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, though the attack raises questions about whethя┐╜...
US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market prices traffic returning to normal by June at 0%
YES.
Traders read theя┐╜...
IranтАЩs Parliament Speaker revealed a direct confrontation with the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 13%
YES, down from 22% yes...
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that JapanтАЩs gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract тАЬBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?...
IranтАЩs Deputy Foreign Minister announced talks with the US are on hold pending a mutually agreed framework, and the market for no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2%
YES.
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