Articles by Estefano Gomez
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced AI deployment to offset a 21.5% staffing cut, affecting crypto and prediction market oversight. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 20 is at 99.6%
YES.
The CFTCтАЩs...
PakistanтАЩs Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Doha as part of efforts to mediate the ongoing US-Iran conflict. IranтАЩs uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 sits at 41.4%
YES, up from 25%...
The UK and France will host a summit to discuss setting up a naval force aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The market on whether the UK will send warships through the sя┐╜...
US import prices climbed 0.8% in March, driven largely by higher fuel prices, as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues to disrupt oil markets. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in Aя┐╜...
Hezbollah launched a barrage hours after a ceasefire announcement, injuring several people in the Upper Galilee. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 99.6%
YES, down from 94% earlier today.
Maя┐╜...
PakistanтАЩs Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Doha to facilitate US-Iran talks. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The market for no diplom...
Anthropic confirmed the release of Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the prediction market for its release date. The April 16 contract sits at 100%
YES, up from 46% a day ago.
Market reaction
The April я┐╜...
Trump dismissed a 20-year minimum for a uranium deal with Iran, raising barriers to an agreement. The odds for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 are at 46.3%
YES, up from 35% a day ago.
Traders iя┐╜...
Bitcoin tagged $75,000, and the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin reaching $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 now shows 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago.
The move to $75,000 coincided with $89M in short liя┐╜...
Morgan Stanley is embedding cryptocurrency operations throughout the firm and has launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9%
YES.
The Bitcoin Trust я┐╜...
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