Articles by Estefano Gomez
The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast due to the Iran war and potential oil price spikes, raising US recession odds for 2026. The probability of a US recession by yearтАЩs end sits at 0%
...
Trump announced that US-Iran talks will continue over the weekend, saying differences are minimal. A permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 28.5%
YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The negotiations haя┐╜...
Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi announced a new maritime system for the Strait of Hormuz. The market on UK warships transiting the strait by April 30 dropped to 9.5%
YES, down from 12% a week ago.
я┐╜...
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called in a televised address to transform the ceasefire with Israel into permanent agreements. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is now at 94%
YES,я┐╜...
XRP can now be used on Solana, with $1.2 million worth of wrapped XRP tokens minted. The market for XRP exceeding $1.80 by April 19 sits at 0.3%
YES.
The news hasnтАЩt moved market odds. Current se...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced over a dozen countriesтАЩ readiness to join a defensive mission in the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market is at 14.5% YES, up from 12% a...
Representatives Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales have resigned from Congress amid criticism of insufficient protections against sexual misconduct, with the Tony Gonzales out by May 31 market at 100%
я┐╜...
Rumen Radev is leading polls for BulgariaтАЩs April 19 parliamentary election, with the Polymarket contract for him becoming the next Prime Minister at 90.8%
YES, up from 74% a week ago.
Radev, a f...
Trump declared the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends when an agreement is signed. The market for a blockade lift by May 31 is at 90%
YES.
Market reaction
TrumpтАЩs conditional statement has...
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open, with oil tankers back in action. The probability of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 90%
YES.
The StraitтАЩs reopening has pushed up...
.png)