Articles by Estefano Gomez
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for тАЬpermanent agreementsтАЭ following the Israel truce, and the odds of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 are at 100%
YES on Polymarket.
Mark...
Three Iranian oil tankers under US sanctions have left the Gulf carrying five million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April я┐╜...
The European Central Bank continues to signal restraint on rate cuts during the Middle East conflict, and the Polymarket contract for a 50+ basis point decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%я┐╜...
IEA chief Fatih Birol says markets are underestimating the Strait of Hormuz closureтАЩs impact. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is at 75%
YES.
BirolтАЩs warning comes as IranтАЩs blockade of the S...
ECBтАЩs Madis M├╝ller said a rate move in April canтАЩt be ruled out. The market for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%
YES, unchanged from a week ago.
M├╝llerтАЩs comments a...
The Gulf WarтАЩs aftermath has produced a $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment shortfall, as the US-Iran conflict enters its seventh week following an April 8 ceasefire. The market on whethe...
Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0%
YES, up from 35% a day aя┐╜...
Lebanese civilians are cautiously returning home as the ceasefire with Israel holds. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 94%
YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
Tя┐╜...
A proposal to freeze Satoshi NakamotoтАЩs Bitcoin has surfaced without shaking market confidence. Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9%
YES.
Market reaction
The proposal, led by Ja...
US-Iran talks brokered by Pakistan are reportedly in their final phase, with a deal signing ceremony expected soon. The market on the ceasefire ending by April 21 sits at 8%
YES.
Market reaction
я┐╜...
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