Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran has declared that transferring enriched uranium has never been an option, and the market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sits at 0% YES.
This statement directly affectя┐╜...
Bitcoin is trading at $75K, up about 24% from its bear market low, but strong selling pressure and exchange inflows suggest the rally may not hold. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April я┐╜...
Iran has not committed to attending the next round of US-led talks in Pakistan, following a US naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. The market on whether no qualifying diplomatic я┐╜...
IranтАЩs Foreign Ministry spokesman rejected any deadlines on national interests and warned the U.S. and Israel of military retaliation. The probability of a ceasefire by April 30 has dropped to 34.5%...
Israeli forces have uncovered an Iranian Revolutionary Guards terror network aiming to sabotage a strategic oil pipeline. The odds for an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal by April 30 are now aя┐╜...
IsraelтАЩs military warned Lebanese civilians against returning to villages in southern Lebanon, citing Hezbollah ceasefire violations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%...
PakistanтАЩs Prime Minister is keeping peace talk plans alive in Islamabad despite Iran pulling out, and the odds for a ceasefire extension by April 21, 2026, have dropped to 64%
YES, down from 86% ...
IranтАЩs Foreign Ministry is reviewing a US plan conveyed during the Pakistani Army ChiefтАЩs visit, and the market for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 sits at 1.5%
YES, up from 2% yesterday.
Market ...
AaveтАЩs rsETH exploit caused a $7B drop in total value locked and a 15% decline in the AAVE token. BitcoinтАЩs likelihood of dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 3.1%
YES, unchanged after the news b...
IranтАЩs Foreign Ministry said there is no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the US blockade lift by May 31 is now at 78%
, down from 90% twenty-four hours ago.
Mar...
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